Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 90268.301809 95193.020928 100111.730361 105389.647562 110889.169542 116447.210967 122485.441861
2024-12-29 83147.902894 90770.638865 98591.458383 107204.555647 116412.982323 125951.933663 136569.233021
2025-01-05 77649.403143 87126.818962 97058.762261 108220.922241 120393.459639 133242.488102 147808.100903
2025-01-12 72780.716533 83589.022676 95120.241770 108301.617995 122914.407886 138579.918836 156605.309037
2025-01-19 68616.278898 80447.475009 93270.572501 108147.762637 124877.358129 143052.795908 164234.866729
2025-01-26 66382.855666 79245.364253 93379.103985 109988.803928 128897.038157 149674.692203 174153.482707
2025-02-02 64452.654093 78224.895821 93549.582599 111770.247629 132743.415597 156027.207803 183725.812913
2025-02-09 62178.351720 76663.238998 92974.241886 112582.409108 135388.624366 160950.591471 191634.721896
2025-02-16 59596.642621 74609.264660 91710.120794 112486.239456 136891.992798 164496.345871 197915.942847
2025-02-23 57619.391244 73169.796010 91074.196681 113040.831464 139082.622368 168784.270234 205024.767570
2025-03-02 55540.671601 71515.411981 90100.738277 113119.647187 140650.350155 172301.995776 211210.334156
2025-03-09 54424.178328 70967.437589 90396.629069 114667.218126 143925.682198 177805.189687 219729.721693
2025-03-16 52327.356517 69173.676884 89161.825474 114361.578629 144999.318519 180748.211325 225300.140744
2025-03-23 51385.455058 68771.463904 89590.059678 116053.846667 148472.834561 186557.721414 234318.921879
2025-03-30 50175.549294 67983.614610 89503.172237 117082.209648 151120.836817 191376.339732 242170.593773
2025-04-06 48574.320549 66642.646116 88679.801550 117155.982845 152567.121003 194727.128724 248251.996825
2025-04-13 46951.911582 65218.214214 87701.111661 116989.378884 153679.176860 197647.523730 253802.134354
2025-04-20 46416.846166 65169.016483 88432.639247 118949.771244 157420.809112 203781.658640 263293.715445
2025-04-27 45888.180042 65102.622620 89123.214852 120846.764742 161083.027449 209832.394481 272717.041228
2025-05-04 44928.896539 64436.811784 89018.993441 121711.513828 163437.813778 214272.344300 280175.939541
2025-05-11 43594.458590 63232.836840 88184.623138 121609.110768 164546.660914 217154.655054 285708.631345
2025-05-18 42619.982657 62478.767948 87906.725880 122199.594399 166519.033945 221107.185491 292580.786328
2025-05-25 41478.401497 61465.203905 87259.036533 122283.507868 167824.474528 224215.389389 298402.707441